Immigration to Texas and North Texas is an unavoidable future, nor should we want to avoid it. According to the research done by Vision North Texas, "If current trends continue, the 16-county North Texas region will have over 75% more people in 2030 than in 2000, and the population will more than double by 2050." Capturing a portion of that growth is essential for Garland's future.
 
Almost all of that immigration will be domestic, people moving here from other states. Much of the reason has to do with the economic success of our area and Texas.
 
Forbes Magazine shows county-to-county nationwide migration for 2008 and, by a large ratio, people are moving to Texas rather than leaving. While some national cities/counties show an almost complete exodus, such as Detroit, just the opposite migration is occurring in Dallas, Tarrant, Collin, and Denton Counties. The Metroplex is already absorbing a lot of people. The same is true for most major Texas cities.
 
To meet that growth, this region will need to construct thousands and thousands of new houses, hundreds of new schools, a few dozen new hospitals, many more shopping centers, and miles and miles of new roads.
 
For Garland, our growth does not reflect that influx; in the last few years we have grown well under 1% per year. That doesn't bode well when other areas are growing by double-digits. They are attracting the new investment and construction.
 
Of course, the more successful areas have lots of open land ready for easy development. As a mature, inner-ring city, Garland is among those inner cities described in the VNT North Texas 2050 study as "largely developed and have little land left for new (greenfield) development. Their neighborhoods and business areas were mostly built before 1980. Many of the major regional institutions (museums, universities, etc.) are located here, as are many places with regional historic significance. They are facing challenges of infrastructure repair. While some neighborhoods are desirable and thriving, others are suffering from neglect. The inner tier areas include both major employment locations and major shopping destinations, as well as a wide variety of neighborhoods. To make the most of the investments and community assets found in these areas, action focuses on steps to keep these neighborhoods prospering, reuse of older buildings, and selection of locations for infill development."
 
When Garland reaches build-out in just a few years, the economic development model we have followed—sprawling development filling every pasture—collapses. We have always relied on new development for more housing choices, more commercial and retail space, more industry, and more people. Those people buy new cars and new homes, shop in the stores and restaurants, pay taxes to the city, attend churches and tithe, carry their children to soccer and day camps and the movies, add swimming pools and patios and upgrade their closets and buy furniture, use and support the upgrades of our utilities, and are literally and figuratively the lifeblood of the community. However, when we reach build-out under our current system, new construction will very nearly die and people moving to the city slows even more. It is very likely then that people will start leaving the city, lowering property values and wiping out the primary investment of many families, closing businesses, exporting jobs, and lowering the overall quality of life. It's not a hard case to prove and there are many cities across the nation that are proving the scenario every day.
 
Could we hold everything in stasis and "hold our own," avoiding that ugly scenario? The clear answer is no. We can go back or we can go forward but we can't hold where we are. The current recession mirrors what would happen. We have had little new construction over the last two years (compared to recent periods), overall property values have been declining for years (previously disguised only by new construction), and our population growth has been anemic. We have no physical room for a turn-around. The current situation is clearly unsustainable and it directly reflects what happens when we reach build-out.
 
Fortunately, we aren't held to that scenario but, to escape it, we have to start doing things differently. Many of the changes are under study or underway, such as changes to our development codes and our comprehensive plan.
 
However, for any changes we adopt, we have to continue to add people. Some areas of the city will become denser, probably around nodes of new development. New, higher buildings may appear. More people will live downtown or, perhaps, at Firewheel Town Center, or Broadway/Centerville, near the Forest/Jupiter DART station, or Garland Ave/Miller. We don't know now but somewhere.
 
Garland needs to keep growing to keep prospering. Planning for that growth and inviting more investment is more challenging when a city reaches build-out but that's all it is: more challenging. We must continue to grow. The flip side, instead of absorbing all those green fields like we have for decades, this new development will be replacing and enhancing the old. However, it's going to take people.